World oil demand will rise more than 2% to 101.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, although skyrocketing oil prices and weak economic forecasts dimmed the outlook for the future. . ,
The Paris-based IEA also said in its monthly report that sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine were causing supply disruptions.
“Economic fears persist, as various international institutions have recently issued a downbeat outlook,” the IEA said, adding that demand will increase by 2.2 million bpd, or 2.2%, in 2023 compared to 2022 and pre-pandemic levels. will exceed.
“Similarly, tightening of central bank policy, the increasing influence of the US dollar and rising interest rates on the purchasing power of emerging economies mean that the risks to our outlook are downward-focused,” it said.
Advanced economies in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will account for most of the demand growth in 2022, while China will lead gains in 2023 as it emerges from the COVID-19 lockdown.
China’s recent COVID-19 sanctions have put the world’s biggest oil importer on track for a decline in demand for the first time in this century, the IEA said.
Improvements in aggregate demand and supply crunch due to sanctions on Russia and cautious output growth by OPEC+ pushed oil prices above $139 a barrel in March. On Wednesday, Brent crude was trading around $120.
But the IEA said supply would soon match demand, adding: “After seven consecutive quarters of heavy inventory draws, slowing demand growth and an increase in world oil supply through the end of the year should help rebalance world oil markets.” “
The IEA said tighter sanctions on Russia, a rapid recovery in Chinese demand, sluggish supplies in Libya and limited excess production capacity among OPEC+ states could upset the balance.
